The East Sea is likely to appear about 5-7 typhoons or tropical depressions in the last 3 months of the year

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10:3:9, 07/10/2021 Information from the General Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, forecast that on October 12-13, the East Sea may appear a new storm, storm No. 8. In the last 3 months of the year, the possibility of a new storm may appear. 5-7 storms or tropical depressions are likely to appear.

Illustration

Possibility of 2 consecutive typhoons from October 6-15

On the afternoon of October 5, a tropical tower has formed in the southern sea of the East Sea, right on the tropical convergence band (ITCZ) which tends to be more active in the coming days. It is forecasted that this tropical tower is likely to strengthen into typhooon No. 7, towards the Hoang Sa archipelago, then it will have the ability to directly affect Central Central and North Central provinces from August 8. 10 to about 12/10.

It is forecasted that on October 10-11, a strong cold air wave is likely to affect our country and interact with tropical depressions/typhoons, so in the coming days, the evolution of tropical depressions/hurricanes is expected to be expected. The forecast is also very complicated, with the possibility of causing heavy rain in the Central and North Central provinces (heavy rain due to storms, storms combined with cold air).

Heavy rain is happening in the central provinces. It is forecasted that from October 6 to 8, rain will concentrate in the North Central Highlands, Central Central and South Central provinces (from Quang Tri to Phu Yen), in which in the area from Thua Thien Hue to Binh Dinh. and Kon Turn are likely to experience particularly heavy rain.

From October 8 to October 12, in the provinces of Central Central, North Central, and Northern Delta, heavy rain is likely to occur due to the impact of cold air combined with storm No. 7. Particularly in provinces from From Thanh Hoa to Quang Tri, there are signs of a particularly heavy rain.

Heavy rain occurs continuously in the coming time with great intensity, very heavy rainfall. Provinces/cities in the Central and North Central Highlands need to pay special attention to the very high risk of floods, flash floods, landslides and large-scale inundation.

In the last 3 months of the year, natural disasters are very complicated

According to long-term forecasts, ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation (El Nino - Southern Oscillation)) is likely to transition to La Nina state with a probability of about 70-80% in the remaining months of 2021. La Nina often increase the number of storms, tropical depressions and cause more rain than the average in many years in the central region.

It is forecasted that in October and November 2021, there will be many tropical depressions and storms operating in the East Sea. In the last 3 months of 2021, in the East Sea area, there is also the possibility of appearing about 5-7 storms / tropical depression, of which about 2-4 storms directly affect our country's mainland.

In October and November 2021, storms and storms will be concentrated in the Central region with rainfall forecasted to be 15-30% higher than the average of many years.

Assessing the situation of water resources and saltwater intrusion in the Mekong Delta, the flood peak in 2021 in the upstream of the Mekong River is low (below alarm 1 (BD1)) and appears around mid-October 2021; Flood peaks in 2021 at stations downstream of the Mekong River are at BD2-BD3, some stations on BD3 are high risk of flooding in some low-lying, riverside areas, especially in Can Tho and Vinh Long.

Total flow in the dry season months of 2021-2022 from the upstream of the Mekong River to the downstream and the Mekong Delta is likely to be 15-25% short of the average of many years. occurred earlier and higher than the average for many years.

However, the rainy season is forecast to end late, the rainfall in the dry season months in the Mekong River Delta is higher than the average for many years and there may be unseasonal rains, so the situation of drought, invasion Saltwater intrusion in the Mekong Delta is likely to be less severe than the 2019-2020 dry season.

On the basis of the above forecast analysis, it shows that natural disasters in the next 10 days and the last 3 months of the year are very complicated due to the combination of many types of natural disasters.

(Source: Baophapluat.vn)